The U.S National Presidential election became the center stage of global politics following the assassination attempt on President Donald Trump on 13th July 2024. Though there is much scrutiny over the assailants true intentions, the fact that President Donald Trump openly supports the cryptocurrency industry globally, this makes heads spin of conspiracy theorists and political analyst alike. Bitcoin (BTC) and its price at $66500 on 31st July 2024 for the first time in its history is being affected directly by U.S Presidential Elections, the outcome of this election will have a massive impact on the price of Bitcoin and will certainly affect Bitcoin enthusiast and investors, popularly called Bitcoiners.
The American Presidential election is on Tuesday 5 November, 2024 and the results are expected on the 6th of January 2025 as The vice president presides over the Electoral College vote count at a joint session of Congress, announces the results and declares who has been elected. Kamala D. Harris is the Vice President of the United States as she is running for the U.S Election is 2024 after President Joe Biden had to step down due to political pressure from his own party or health related concerns. Either way this makes the 2024 U.S Presidential election very interesting to the American people and the global audience.
President Donald Trump is known for his business acumen and strong support for industrial and business development along with his unique take on inclusion of people from various cultural backgrounds while pushing for stronger border security to support the U.S economy. President Donald Trump previous administration was characterized by the
individual and corporate tax cuts, attempts to repeal the Affordable
Care Act ("Obamacare"), trade protectionism, immigration restriction,
deregulation focused on the energy and financial sectors, and responses
to the COVID-19 pandemic which was 'huge'. Add to this his recent support for Bitcoin.
Vice President Kamala D. Harris would seem like the ideal Democratic candidate who was sworn into the United States Senate where she championed legislation to fight hunger, provide rent relief, improve maternal health care, expand access to capital for small businesses, revitalize America’s infrastructure, and combat the climate crisis. She questioned two Supreme Court nominees while serving on the Judiciary Committee. She also worked to keep the American people safe from foreign threats and crafted bipartisan legislation to assist in securing American elections while serving on the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence as mentioned on the White House website.
Important Events leading to 2024 and their impact on Bitcoin
- 16/6/2023, BlackRock’s iShares Files for Spot Bitcoin ETF The world's largest investment firm, BlackRock, applies for a spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S., which would be a first of its kind if approved by the SEC.
- 10/1/2024, 11 spot bitcoin ETFs approved by the SEC The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approves 11 bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications. Spot bitcoin ETFs will help make investing in the cryptocurrency more accessible.
- 10/4/2024, Hong Kong to approve its first spot bitcoin ETFs Spot Bitcoin ETFs could be launched in Hong Kong by the end of April. This would make Hong Kong Asia's first city to offer Bitcoin ETFs.
- 19/04/2024, Bitcoin Halving resulting in a block reward of 3.125 BTC. The final halving is expected
to occur in 2140, when the number of bitcoins circulating will reach
its maximum supply of 21 million. (Historically Bitcoin price has increased exponentially after an halving event and is considered bullish overall)
- 06/05/2024, Bitcoin processes its one billionth transaction, a huge milestone for Bitcoin - 15 years and four months after its genesis block was mined.
- 29/07/2024 Coinbase Prime to start custody of government held digital assets U.S. Marshals Service chooses Coinbase to safeguard, trade its large cap digital assets portfolio
- 05/07/2024 U.S Presidential Election Day.
But What will happen to Bitcoin until election day on the 05/11/2024 and after election result day on 06/01/2025?
Bitcoins price has already surged to approx $66500 from the bottom support of $15000 since late 2022. One might assume any risk from the Biden Administration got priced into the rally and that all the above mentioned bullish developments have only propelled the price upward fundamentally.
The Price of Bitcoin could be expected to be range bound through most of 2024 and begin rising during the months leading to November. This is expected as the excitement around the U.S Presidential Election and the fact that President Donald Trump has openly mentioned and endorsed support for the Bitcoin industry.
In the Event President Donald Trump is expected to win the Election the price of Bitcoin will be boundless as more Financial Institutions will begin contemplating diving into the industry so as to not be left behind by firms such as BlackRock. Vice President Kamala D Harris on the other hand might change her opinion on Bitcoin if she studied the pros and benefits of the ecosystem and not just focus on who uses Bitcoin as the U.S dollar is used by criminals aswell. Bitcoin has assisted many people from around the world protecting family wealth from inflation caused by the U.S debt crisis. The National U.S Debt now stands at $35 Trillion Dollars and interestingly '35' is the minimum age of presidential candidates for election to the United States, Ireland, Poland, Russia, Trinidad and Tobago, and Uruguay. Will the minimum age of presidential candidates increase with time?
However if VP Kamala D Harris does win the U.S presidential election and is elected along with becoming the first woman to hold the most powerful office in the western hemisphere the price of bitcoin will not be impacted as much. Her Administration might become hostile towards the industry but that would only propel the governments around the world to foster and assist in the growth of their own nascent cryptocurrency industry that are unique to each country, helping the overall Bitcoin Ecosystem. I expect Bitcoin to cross $90000 soon.
While ending this article on U.S Presidential Elections and its effect on bitcoin i implore my readers to take note that the U.S elections in the past have not affected Bitcoin negatively, making the 2024 Presidential Election an opportunity for the industry to grow in America and around the world.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, please do your own research and make an informed investment decision at your own risk
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